July 3, 2020, 8:16
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akipress.kg
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AKIPRESS.COM - 526 new COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the morning of July 2 in Kyrgyzstan. This is the absolute record that seemed fantastic 3 weeks ago. Is resurgence in COVID-19 cases is autonomous or this is typical for all countries of the regions, former Soviet Union (fSU) republics or the whole world?
According to WHO Regional Director for Europe Dr Hans Kluge, 30 countries in the world have spike in new cases for the last 2 weeks. Kyrgyzstan is among 11 countries with the highest resurgence in cases.
We will compare 11 fSU republics, excluding Baltic states, that had for around 70 years the same health care system. The data from www.worldometers.info and the website of John Hopkins University will be used.
As of July 1, the absolute number of cases and deaths are as follow below:
1. Russia - 661,165 cases and 9,683 deaths;
2. Belarus - 62,424 cases and 398 deaths;
3. Ukraine - 45,887 cases and 1,185 deaths;
4. Kazakhstan - 42,574 cases and 188 deaths;
5. Armenia - 26 658 cases and 459 deaths;
6. Azerbaijan - 18 112 cases and 220 deaths;
7. Moldova - 16 898 cases and 549 deaths;
8. Uzbekistan - 8904 cases and 26 deaths;
9. Kyrgyzstan - 6261 cases and 66 deaths;
10. Tajikistan - 6005 cases and 52 deaths;
11. Georgia - 939 cases and 15 deaths.
For comparison of the scale of the epidemic, we will look at number of cases per 1 million people.
We will see the following sequence of countries in such case:
1. Armenia - 8,996 cases per 1 million;
2. Belarus - 6,606;
3. Russia - 4,531;
4. Moldova - 4,189;
5. Kazakhstan - 2,267;
6. Azerbaijan - 1,786;
7. Ukraine - 1,049;
8. Kyrgyzstan - 960;
9. Tajikistan - 630;
10. Uzbekistan - 266;
11. Georgia - 235.
The number of deaths per 1 million people is the following:
1. Armenia - 155 deaths;
2. Moldova - 136;
3. Russia - 66;
4. Belarus - 42;
5. Ukraine - 27;
6. Azerbaijan - 22;
7. Kazakhstan - 10;
8. Kyrgyzstan - 10;
9. Tajikistan - 5;
10. Georgia - 4;
11. Uzbekistan - 0.8.
The situation will look relatively better if compared with the most affected countries. For instance, in Italy 3,982 cases and 575 deaths account for 1 million people.
Another important factor that may influence the country's tally of cases is the number of tests made per capita. Any successful containment of the epidemic starts with mass testing.
The situation with testing per 1 million among 10 post-Soviet Union countries is as follows below:
1. Russia - 138,205 tests;
2. Belarus - 107,210;
3. Kazakhstan - 81,836;
4. Azerbaijan - 47,555;
5. Armenia - 39,067;
6. Kyrgyzstan - 34,074;
7. Uzbekistan - 33,501;
8. Georgia - 28,369;
9. Moldova - 25,082;
10. Ukraine - 15,487.
Tajikistan does not publicize the information on number of made tests, which in turn casts doubts on official statistics of COVID-19 cases in the country.
Another important factor is daily dynamics of new cases. In such countries like Russia, Belarus, the curve of new cases in run up to important political events, such as referendum and presidential election, gradually and steadily is falling.
Having reached the peak in mid-June, the curve declined in Moldova. In Tajikistan this curve was declining for several cases a day since May 21, when it leaped twice on July 1 from 51 to 105 cases.
During the last 10 days the curve of new cases grew and dropped in Ukraine, Armenia. In Georgia, the curve was falling on the whole: since June 17, it did not exceed 10 cases a day.
The spike in new cases is observed in Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyzstan has the most abrupt spike in new cases - the curve of average daily cases during the last 10 days grew 1.4 times: from 119 to 287.8 cases (June 13-21 and June 22-July 2 used for comparison). In other words, among 11 post-Soviet Union countries, the dynamic of resurgence in cases appeared to be the highest in Kyrgyzstan.
The main indicator of the scale of the epidemic is availability of hospital beds. To varying degrees, most post-Soviet Union countries faced shortage of hospital beds. Most governments acted traditionally in such case - they tried to conceal these facts.
But not in case of Kyrgyzstan, the government will be unable to conceal such fact.
On the whole, with current dynamics of epidemic development, Kyrgyzstan has the chance to become a leader in epidemics statistics. It will need to outstrip Kazakhstan only for that.
