2019 year: Atambayev’s legacy done away with. Time has come for Parliament

AKIPRESS.COM - Protests 2019 year started with growth of patriotic sentiments of certain citizens in form of anti-China rallies. Several rallies were held, including the biggest one on January 17. There were certain internal prerequisites for that. On one hand, mobilization of protesters spoke about the process of national identity building. However, a good coordination of anti-China rallies in Central Asia, a broad coverage of the Muslim situation in Xinjiang by all leading western media point to interest of external players in exacerbation of the situation.
In spring, preparation of the Kyzyl-Ompel uranium deposit for development, which lies 20 km away of Lake Issyk-Kul, led to other series of rallies that started at the local level and then reached the nation-wide level in Bishkek. After the rally on April 26 in Bishkek, the government agreed to suspend development of radioactive deposits and then banned it entirely at the end of the year.
The investigative report was released by Azattyk in May, where former Customs Vice Chairman Raim Matraimov was mentioned. Prior to that, a sport event was held in Kara-Suu by Ismail Matraimov Foundation attended by government members and many members of the Parliament. A wave of negative publications in local and social media followed then against Raim Matraimov. After that he made a statement and accused ex-President Atambayev of vilifying him and promised he would take actions in response.
Murder of Uyghur businessman Aierken Saimaiti and release of the second part of the investigative report in autumn pushed two anti-corruption rallies in Bishkek in November and December. The mobile youth of both sexes, who live in the city and are discontent about the current situation in the country, participated in the rallies. A new opposition movement Umut 2020 led by Chingiz Aitmatov's daughter Shirin reckons on support of this part of the society.
The driving force of all three mentioned rallies differs from the nature of rallies that ousted Akaev in 2005 and Bakiyev in 2010. The revolutions in Kyrgyzstan always mobilized clans and used their wish to change a person on the top of the pyramid. The rallies of 2019 is mobilization under a broad national slogan of the young electorate.
Politics
The main political event of the year has become end of the transit of power after the 2017 presidential election. It has formalized with strengthening of a patron-client construction and defeat of Atambayev and his remaining supporters. This took more than half a year - starting with the ex-President's immunity stripping, launch of the criminal probe against Atambayev and his arrest on August 8.
It was a particularly dangerous moment for the Kyrgyz statehood - Atambayev barricaded himself inside his residence in Koi-Tash village and ex-territorial enclave appeared in the country.
End of this struggle will have several implications. First, Atambayev openly held a place of the opposition leader in confrontation with President Jeenbekov. After his arrest this place remains vacant. Different forces can take it, especially if power weakens due to internal mistakes or further escalation of the situation with Tajikistan over border issues.
Second, the traditional competition of winning groups started for access to resources in the President's encirclement in 2019. The main its sign is launch of criminal probes and arrest of undesired persons, for instance head of Environmental Protection Agency Rustamov and Deputy Interior Minister Kursan Asanov. Another high-profile case is struggle for control of the passport tender, which ended with resignation of State National Security Committee Chair Idris Kadirkulov and fleeing of former State Registration Service Chair Alina Shaikova from the country.
Parliament
The main planned political event of the next year will be parliamentary elections. The preparations for the election have started and some parties began campaign de-facto.
The parliamentary elections of 2005 led to the first revolution in Kyrgyzstan. The political parties are in crisis now. Formally ruling SDPK party is about to collapse.
There is a huge number of forces and politicians willing to gain seats in Parliament. This time the stakes are high - theoretically controlling the Parliament Prime Minister may become the figure equal to the President. The President needs controllable or at least loyal Parliament to advance unpopular but necessary decisions.
The results of the parliamentary elections will change the political landscape. The presidential election will be held with the Parliament-to be and the change of the executive power will happen.
So, the main issue of the next year will be the parliamentary elections and how they will be held, whether the key stakeholders of the process will be recognized. The society is split now as never before, while repressive machine got broad powers.
President Jeenbekov will have to address the tasks of rebridging several splits, primarily the north-south, urban-rural areas, youth-elderly people and other splits.